Western Balkans Brace for Uncertainty Amidst Shifting US Foreign Policy
Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House is casting a long shadow over the Western Balkans, a region where the United States has played a significant role in shaping security and stability since the 1990s. Concerns are mounting about the impact of an "America First" approach on existing peace agreements, democratic institutions, and the region’s aspirations for Euro-Atlantic integration.
Key Takeaways
- A potential divergence between the US and EU on security and trade could fragment the Western Balkans.
- US foreign aid suspension impacts hundreds of projects focused on democracy promotion and institutional reform.
- Regional leaders are seeking to leverage potential US policy shifts for political and economic gain.
- The EU is urged to step up and fill the void left by potential US disengagement.
Shifting Alliances and Regional Fragmentation
The anticipated "America First" foreign policy under a second Trump administration is expected to lead to a divergence between the United States and the European Union on key security and trade issues. This discord could reshape regional dynamics, potentially turning the Western Balkans into an area of competition rather than complementarity between Washington and Brussels. Some regional leaders, particularly those at odds with Brussels, may exploit this divergence to their advantage, potentially fueling instability.
Impact of Foreign Aid Suspension
President Trump’s executive order to reevaluate and realign US foreign aid has already led to the suspension of numerous projects funded by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the State Department. This halt affects hundreds of initiatives across the Western Balkans, impacting areas such as civil society support, human rights, media development, and energy efficiency. The suspension has created unease among organizations that rely on this funding for their operations and for promoting democratic reforms.
Regional Leaders’ Strategic Maneuvers
Leaders in the Western Balkans are closely watching the developments in Washington, with many hoping to benefit from a potential shift in US policy. Figures like Aleksandar Vučić of Serbia and Milorad Dodik of Republika Srpska anticipate a more favorable, Serbia-centric US foreign policy. They aim to leverage personal ties with the Trump administration to achieve political and economic advantages, particularly concerning Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Richard Grenell, Trump’s former envoy, is also expected to play a significant role, having cultivated strong relationships with regional elites.
Europe’s Role in a Changing Landscape
As the US potentially reduces its engagement, there is a growing call for the European Union to increase its involvement in the Western Balkans. Experts suggest that Europe must step up to fill the security and democracy promotion gaps left by Washington. This includes strengthening its own defense capabilities, supporting civil society, and addressing the region’s lingering bilateral disputes to push forward EU accession. A coordinated transatlantic strategy is deemed crucial to counter the growing influence of Russia and China in the region.
Security Architecture Under Strain
The US has historically played a pivotal role in establishing and safeguarding the security architecture of the Western Balkans, including the Dayton Peace Agreement and support for Kosovo’s independence. Concerns exist that a Trump administration might inadvertently dismantle this decades-long effort through quick deals or a reduced military presence. While a complete withdrawal of US troops is unlikely, any reduction in NATO’s presence could be exploited by external powers, potentially leading to serious consequences for regional stability.
Sources
- What Trump’s approach to Europe means for the Western Balkans, Atlantic Council.
- America first, Europe next: Trump will change dynamics in Western Balkan security, European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
- Trump’s Second Term: Garcević on Implications for the Balkans, Boston University.
- Trump’s Suspension of US Foreign Aid Hits Hundreds of Balkan Projects, Balkan Insight.
- Western Balkans Quiver Amid Trump Uncertainty, Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
