The victory of Erdogan and the question marks of the next day

The victory of Erdogan and the question marks of the next day

Ankara, November 4, 2015/Independent Balkan News Agency

Positive reaction of the bond markets

By Manolis Kostidis

The electoral “triumph” of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which managed to get 49.4 of the vote, provoked the positive reaction of the markets in Turkey with the index of the Istanbul stock market soaring by 5% and the Turkish lira revaluated by 3.1% against the dollar and 2.8% against the Euro.

Economic analysts estimate that the climate will remain good, at least in the short term, as the five months of uncertainty and instability that prevailed in the country, due to the absence of a majority or coalition government and the subsequent formation of a provisional government, was causing skepticism at all.

This is considered the main reason for the electoral victory of the duo Erdogan-Davutoglu. “The sudden stagnation in the economy, the freezing of many projects, the rapid devaluation of the Turkish lira by 20% in a few months, awakened memories of 2001 when the country had gone bankrupt. Nobody wanted to live this nightmare and the people in such cases places importance only to their work and ignore the rest”, a major Turkish businessman told IBNA.

However, entrepreneurs who have expressed their opposition to the policy of Erdogan are afraid of persecution against them.

The Chamber of Industry of Turkey with an announced was asked from the government “more reforms and the reduction of polarisation in society”.

Erdogan commented on the election results and claimed that “the will of the people decided that there is no alternative to stability”.

In the electoral headquarters of political parties, as well as in the pollsters who failed miserably in their predictions for the election result, are trying to find the causes of the defeat and the comfortable victory of the party founded by Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Almost all those analysts and politicianswith whom we spoke agree that the main reason for the election victory of the AKP, was the opposition’s inability to create a coalition bloc against the pair Erdogan-Davutoglu. “The AKP thoroughly read the results of the elections of June 7, in which it had lost its self-reliance. It prepared well for these elections, unlike the opposition parties which had no agreement between them and could not send out a message of cooperation or the creation of a coalition. And after five months, the world turned to safe solution”, the general director of the center of political and economic research SETA Burhanettin Duran told IBNA, to add that the AKP managed to get voters from Turkish nationalists and Kurdish nationalists. A difficult and paradoxical success.

Another key factor that played an important role in the success of Erdogan was the increasing uncertainty due to terrorism. After the elections of June 7 the PKK resumed its armed struggle in the southeastern provinces, and there were also the terrorist attacks of ISIS. “In recent weeks however, the Davutoglu government, suddenly began to show that it combats ISIS and started operations against and the PKK and in this way managed to steal the votes of nationalists of the MHP”, says the columnist of daily Cumhuriyet Orhan Bursalı.

Another important element was that the AKP renewed 1/3 of its candidates and made important agreements with tribal leaders of southeastern Turkey, who are controlling tens of thousands of voters.

The scenarios for the next day

“I think Erdogan on Sunday evening had one of the most peaceful and relaxing nights. He is not worried about anything anymore and considers that he has achieved his objectives”, says to IBNA the news director of the opposition television network FOX tv, Doğan Şentürk, who predicts that the President will not take new steps to increase his powers. “He has reason to take such steps as he is already president with superpowers. He controls his party, controls the Parliament, so why make changes since he can pass any law he wants”, Şentürk points out.

Experienced analysts has told us that Erdogan, in cooperation with Davutoglu, may restart the negotiations on the Kurdish issue.

Besides, he knows that the imprisoned leader of the PKK Abdullah Öcalan did not eye favourably the rise of the pro-Kurdish HDP party of Selahattin Demirtaş. The drop of the rates of the HDP, which received 10.7% of the vote and lost almost 3 percentage points compared to June 2015, may help in the realisation of this scenario.

DEFINITIVE RESULTS OF ELECTIONS

VOTES     RATES    SEATS

AKP 23.215.000  49,4%      317

CHP 11.970.529   25,3%      134

MHP 5.629.933   11,9%         40

HDP 4.990.670    10,7%        59