Turks vote in fear of the next day

Turks vote in fear of the next day

Ankara, October 30, 2015/Independent Balkan News Agency

Erdogan does not want a coalition

AKP’s rates have gone up, but majority government seems unlikely

By Manolis Kostidis

For the second time in 2015, approximately 55 million Turkish voters go to the polls to elect a new government, with all polls pointing to the fact that this time as well, as after the elections of June 7, there will be no single party majority government.

What everyone agrees on is that every day that passes the situation worsens in Turkey in every respect, and everyone hopes that after the elections there will be a coalition government that will change the negative sentiment.

Terrorism of ISIS and PKK, Mass Media attacks and fear for the next day

Since the June elections, and the failure to form a majority government, the country has been effectively ruled by a caretaker government, composed by Ahmet Davutoglu’s AKP.

In these last four months however, several negative developments have occured.

Initially, it was terminated in a formal way the effort of solving the Kurdish problem, with the Turkish president declaring that “there is no Kurdish problem”. As a result, the PKK has once again started its activity, which resulted in the death of at least 200 soldiers and policemen.

Furthermore, there have been attacks from supporters and the AKP MPs against the offices of the newspaper Hürriyet, which is the largest opposition newspaper to Erdogan and Davutoglu, followed by the beating of the same newspaper’s columnist Ahmet Hakan, by members of the AKP. A few days ago, two television networks that belong to the opposition and have ties with Islamic Movement of Fethullah Gulen, were placed under state control. The parent company of the channels, the Ipek-Koza Group, was placed under State guardianship on charges of “financing”, “recruiting” and “making propaganda” in favour of Imam Gulen, who since 2013 has been in bitter dispute with Erdogan.

In these four months, there were two major terrorist attacks of the Islamic State. On July 20 in Suruc on the Southeast of the country, with suicide bomber attacking a peaceful rally of Kurds for Kobani, which resulted in the death of 34 people and the injury of 100 others.

This attack was followed by that of the two suicide bomber, also members of the Islamic State, in central Ankara on October 10, with 100 dead and 300 wounded.

The “AKP or chaos” theory

President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan and prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu claim that all this is happening because since June the AKP is not in power, since lost its majority, despite the fact that Davutoglu remains as caretaker prime minister.

The Kurds and other opposition parties blame the government for “hiding” or “closing its eyes” to these events, as well as to the terrorist attacks, in order to cause chaos in the country before the elections, in an attempt to reduce the rates of the HDP, and for people to vote for the AKP with the dilemma «AKP or chaos”.

Ahmet Davutoglu, in an interview on Show TV, admitted that “after the terrorist attack in Ankara the rates of the AKP have increased”.

Polls show an increase in AKP’s rates, but majority government seems unlikely

Indeed, almost all opinion polls point to the fact that a single party majority government is unlikely to occur after the November 1 elections, despite the fact that the rates of the AKP appear increased by two percentile points in relation to the June elections.

Polls give the Justice and Development Party (AKP) between 40.9 and 43.5% (40.9 in the June elections), followed by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) with 27.8-30.4 (25%), the Nationalist Action Party (MIP) with 13.6-15.2 (16.3%), and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) 12.1-13.1% (13.1%).

The obstacle to AKP’s self-reliance is essentially the HDP, which looks set to again exceed the electoral threshold of 10%.

“If voters drop the percentages of the AKP and raise the rates of the opposition they will send the message that they want a coalition government. But if the rates of the AKP increase without achieving a majority, then this situation might go on. In this scenario the AKP will see that the policy of chaos theory brings benefits and will continue to say, ‘you didn’t want me, this chaos is the result’, and perhaps leave the country for a long time as such with the excuse that there is nothing to be done because it is not possible to form a government”, says professor of political Science at Sabancı University, Ersin Kalaycıoğlu, in his interview to Hürriyet.

Erdogan does not want to hear the word coalition

All the politicians and journalists we spoke to agree that Recep Tayyip Erdogan does not agree with the idea of ​​a coalition government and will not allow Ahmet Davutoglu to form such a government.

Unless there is a surprise result and the AKP wins the 276 seats needed to form a majority government.