Their bets, which determine also their corresponding electorial campaigns, ready the two largest parties, in view of the national elections on 7 July.
By Spyros Gkoutzanis
On the one hand we have ND, which is on the verge of political change, and de facto starts with a 9.35 points lead on SYRIZA. Its basis is 33.11% from the European elections. Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s goal, which he described by saying “we want Greece self-reliant”, is a self-sufficient majority. It is necessary, depending on the other parameters of the electoral system, to increase its power to 36.5% and above. As its rallying is already high, the available “deposit of persons” is the undecided voters, as a part of them always goes with the winner. But there are also the parties to its right, such as the party of Kyriakos Velopoulos, who obtained 4.5% in the European elections, and Golden Dawn, who, for internal reasons but also because it lost its momentum, shows signs of dissolution. Moreover, there are the remainders of the party “Potami”, who also has a neo-liberal stance. Of course, a power party targets everything, but the political considerations say that it will be difficult for ND to “fish” from KINAL after Fofi Gennimata’s moves, Evangelos Venizelos’ retirement and the activation of executives from PASOK’s history such as Nikos Christodoulakis and Petros Efthimios.
In Piraeus, however, they are happy, they believe that the bar can be set at 40%, so not just pure self-sufficient majority, but also an overwhelming victory against the opponent. Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ tactic is that of low-key. He is already in a favourable position, it will suffice for them to just eat away the time until the elections, in order to achieve a big victory. To this end, is it enough for them to not to scare the centre-left voters- so they get up to go the ballot box- and let the winning stream attract those voters who at the last moment always go with the winner. Thus, even though the atmosphere in the party organizations is set by the statements of Aivaliotis and Skaloumbakas, the recommendation is “patience until the elections”.
The ND strategy also concerns the next day. Kyriakos Mitsostakis, who will start with a shocking program the first 100 days, wants to have the green light and hands free to be able to implement his neo-liberal “reforms”. A fallen SYRIZA and correspondingly fragmented centre-left side, as in the 1950s, 60s and 70s, is the ideal political situation for a smooth four-year governance.
Pessimism and scepticism in SYRIZA
In SYRIZA, things are more difficult. The expectation of victory, which was alive until the morning of the European elections, has now abandoned even the most optimistic or daring members. The disappointment is widespread in both SYRIZA and the Progressive Alliance, which sees its momentum dropping so shortly after its beginning. Although Alexis Tsipras will continue until the last day to say that “and yet it can turn and the game is open”, he plans a strategy for the next day, starting with defeat. The main aim is to retain its party power so that in any case, regardless of the performance of the other parties, it is the main player of the opposition, in the context of the new bipolarity, which everything seems to show will replace the former bipartisanship (two-party system). Thus, with a start of 23.7% in the European elections, the bar is set at 25%, with optimistic estimates, if the party is very lucky, to reach 27% -28%. In the negative scenario of the continuing fall, in no case must it fall below 20%. SYRIZA’s “natural deposit” is also the undecided and the leftist voters who voted during the European elections for Yanis Varoufakis’ party. In order to push the left-wing voters to get up from their couches, Alexis Tsipras should make the threat of the neoliberal right, incarnated by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, as clear as possible. So, while Mitsotakis does a low-key pre-election campaign, Alexis Tsipras is forced to move in the opposite direction by raising the tones, constantly provoking the opponent and brandishing the dangers of the prevalence of neoliberalism. The argument is not devoid of any basis, but Alexis Tsipras is facing, as always, the block of the systemic media.
The open question is whether the next day Alexis Tsipras will maintain a tired party that for four years has failed to build a foundation in society, something that was shown clearly in the municipal elections, or whether he will dare the creation of a new party. In any case, the Progressive Alliance executives will continue their partnership while opening up the dialogue with the under-reformation KINAL for the creation of the centre-left or social-democratic opposition pole. Of course, Nikos Christodoulakis, as well as other people, will have to make a program distinct from the neo-liberal positions they follow a hitherto./ibna