By Spiros Sideris – Athens
SYRIZA leads with 7.5 units over New Democracy (ND), according to the new poll conducted by Macedonia University of Thessaloniki, which also records the “pool” from which the two parties get their votes.
Specifically, the survey published in Sunday’s edition of “Kathimerini”, SYRIZA leads with 27.5% compared to the 20% of ND. Third party is the River with 7.5% followed by the Golden Dawn (6.5%), the Greek Communist Party (KKE) (5.5%), Elia (4%), ANEL (2.5%) and DIMAR (0.5%). In the previous poll of Macedonia University of Thessaloniki, in September, the difference between the first two parties was 6 points.
According to the analysis of Nick Marantzidis, Professor, of the University of Macedonia, the difference between ND and SYRIZA was created in two periods. In the first half of 2014, when SYRIZA managed to get a 4 percentage points from the ND, a difference that was recorded in the outcome of May euroelections. It should be noted that this difference was not created during the electoral campaign period, but had already stabilised by mid-spring.
The second period started in early autumn, when factors such as ENFIA and internal problems in the government, had a negative impact on the electoral influence of the New Democracy.
More specifically, SYRIZA takes votes from the area of anti-memorandum voters, since it gets 30% of the voters of Independent Greeks, 13% of the voters of the Golden Dawn, and 12% of the voters of KKE, based on the results in the national elections of June 2012. It seems that the dilemma Memorandum-no Memorandum works for the benefit of SYRIZA, which collects the votes of the disillusioned or angry voters from both parties of the coalition government.
Approximately 10% of the voters of the government in 2012, that is 3% of the electorate, moves directly to SYRIZA. This shift can account for the large extent of the opening of the gap between the two parties. Also, major shifts occur in PASOK voters, as two out of ten who voted in June 2012 state that they will vote for SYRIZA in the next elections.