Athens, January 19, 2015/ Independent Balkan News Agency
By Spiros Sideris
The conclusions from 13 polls
The conclusions from the last 13 opinion polls that were published between 7/1 and 15/1 put together the Sunday edition of the daily “Kathimerini”, the so-called “poll of polls”.
The term refers to the average that derives from all the polls that are conducted before the elections, which in this case includes polls conducted from 12 poll companies and one University, published between 7 and 15 of January.
Specifically, the poll were conducted by:` Interview, GPO, Marc, Metron, MRB, Rass, Palmos, Pulse, K-Research, Alco, DAT RC, Public Issue and University of Macedonia.
According to them, the mean score obtained in voting intention is 29.5% for SYRIZA, 25.7% for New Democracy, followed by the River (6%), Golden Dawn (5.2%), the Greek cOmmunist Party (KKE) (4.8%), PASOK (4%), the Independent Greeks (ANEL) (2.6%) and the Socialist Democrats Movement (2.2%), while the undecided are about 10.9%.
Based on these figures, a highly risky estimate of the final result, which would result from the allocation of the undecided voters, brings SYRIZA’s rate to 34.7%, with New Democracy getting 30.2%. In third place is the River with 7%, followed by Golden Dawn (6.2%), KKE (5.6%), PASOK (4.7%), while ANEL with (3%) just manage to pass the threshold for their participation in the next House, while the Socialist Democrats Movement (2.6%) fails to gain entrance.
This means that it is not possible to predict how close SYRIZA is to a complete victory, if the polls are confirmed.
Regarding the required rate for self-reliance, it is formed with the cumulative percentage of parties that will be left outside the House. That is, the larger the percentage the more the required rate recedes from 39% closer to 35%.
For example, if in the coming days the poll forecast for Panos Kammenos’ party (ANEL) changes for the worst and there is no change in the dynamic of the newly formed party of Papandreou, then it is likely that the parties that will be left out of the next House – along with DIMAR, ANTARSYA etc. – to even sum over 10% and drop the “bar” of self-reliance to 36.5% or even lower (If the above parties’ added rates reaches 12%, a victory with 35.6% would be enough to attain 151 seats), the newspaper says.
These unknown factors, the ANEL and the party of Papandreou make pollsters speak of one of the most difficult to predict electoral battles, in regard to the possibility of forming a government.
It is worth noting that experts consider last week to be very crucial, since during that time either the fear campaign of ND will prevail and reduce the difference – polls show that the majority of the undecided voters come from the ranks of its ranks – or the opposite will happen, which would result to a widening of the gap between ND and SYRIZA.
According to the most recent poll, conducted by Public Issue and published on Sunday in the daily “Dawn”, SYRIZA leads by 5%.
SYRIZA’s self-reliance remains feasible, while the main opposition party leads by 5% and 144 seats.
The survey shows a rise for the KKE (2%), and the Golden Dawn (1%), as well as for ND DIM.AR, KIDISO, LAOS (0.5% each). There is an overall increase to the right and far right parties and a stagnation for The River and the Independent Greeks.
Regarding winning performance, which increases even more in favor of SYRIZA, 70% believe the main opposition party will win the election.
It is also estimated that the new House will surely have six parties and probably seven, possibly eight or nine parties.