The geopolitical dynamics in the Western Balkans are undergoing significant changes as the U.S. presidential election approaches. The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House raises concerns about the future of EU enlargement and regional stability, while a victory for Kamala Harris could signal a continuation of current policies aimed at strengthening ties with the EU.
Key Takeaways
- The return of Donald Trump could embolden nationalist leaders in the Balkans, complicating EU accession efforts.
- Kamala Harris’s presidency may maintain a focus on Euro-Atlantic integration and democratic values.
- The Western Balkans face increased geopolitical competition as U.S. engagement fluctuates.
The Trump Factor: A Shift Towards Nationalism
Under Trump’s previous administration, U.S. foreign policy in the Balkans was characterized by a transactional approach, prioritizing economic agreements over democratic reforms. His potential return could empower nationalist leaders like Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić, who may exploit the situation to further their agendas, potentially stalling EU enlargement efforts.
- Nationalist Empowerment: Leaders in Serbia and Bosnia may feel emboldened to pursue more aggressive nationalist policies, undermining regional stability.
- Transactional Diplomacy: Trump’s focus on economic normalization, as seen in the 2020 Washington Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, may overshadow the need for democratic governance and rule of law.
Harris’s Vision: Continuity and Cooperation
In contrast, a victory for Kamala Harris could lead to a more collaborative approach with European allies, emphasizing democratic values and the importance of EU integration for the Western Balkans. Harris’s administration is expected to build on the existing framework established by the Biden administration, focusing on:
- Strengthening EU Ties: Encouraging Balkan countries to align more closely with EU standards and practices.
- Promoting Democracy: Supporting civil society and democratic institutions in the region to counteract rising authoritarianism.
- Addressing Security Concerns: Collaborating with NATO to ensure stability in the face of external threats, particularly from Russia and China.
The Role of the EU: A Balancing Act
As the U.S. recalibrates its role in the Western Balkans, the EU must step up its engagement to prevent a power vacuum that could be exploited by Russia and China. The EU’s approach should include:
- Increased Investment: Providing financial support for infrastructure and economic development to bolster EU accession prospects.
- Diplomatic Engagement: Actively mediating disputes, particularly between Serbia and Kosovo, to foster regional cooperation.
- Security Initiatives: Enhancing NATO’s presence in the region to deter potential aggression and maintain stability.
Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for the Western Balkans
The outcome of the U.S. presidential election will have profound implications for the Western Balkans. A Trump presidency may lead to increased nationalism and instability, while a Harris administration could reinforce democratic values and EU integration efforts. As the region navigates these changes, the EU’s proactive engagement will be crucial in shaping a stable and prosperous future for the Western Balkans.
Sources Used in This Article
- What Trump’s approach to Europe means for the Western Balkans, Atlantic Council.
- How Trump’s return to power could stall EU enlargement in the Balkans, The Parliament Magazine.
- US elections: What should the Western Balkans expect from the return of Donald Trump, and what from the victory of Kamala Harris?, European Western Balkans.
- America first, Europe next: Trump will change dynamics in Western Balkan security, European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
- How the US Elections Could Shake Up the Western Balkans, German Council on Foreign Relations | DGAP.
