The threshold for the upcoming spring elections in Serbia has been reduced to 3% from the 5% it was before. As such, the Center for Free Elections and Democracy (CeSID) analyzed the results of the 2014 election, where Vucic had won 158 seats and figures show that the current President would get fewer seats as more parties gain representation in the House, resulting in the first party losing seats.
In such a scenario, instead of the 158 seats, Vucic would have won only 135 seats, losing 23 seats, as would the other parties that passed the 5% threshold in the 2014 election.
By lowering the threshold from 5% to 3%, seats in parliament would be won by Mlađan Dinkić (8 seats) Čedomir Jovanović (9), the Dveri party (10) and the DSS (11), all of which had failed to elect MPs in 2014.
The CeSID also analyzed the 2016 election, noting that parties that did not exceed 5% had not exceeded 3%, so there would not have been any changes in the distribution of seats.
Based on previous results, the Center for Free Elections and Democracy has tried to assess the results expected in the upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for April 26, 2020 and are of particular interest as the opposition has announced a boycott of the elections.
However, Bojan Klacar, CEO of CeSID speaking to Blic, says it is difficult to predict the results, precisely because we do not know who will pass the threshold or who will vote.
“It is impossible to predict. It is possible that some new parties will emerge and run with the same ballots”, Klacar noted, who cited a possible right-wing alliance of “The Pact” and the “Serbian Right” as an example.
He also points out that, compared to 2014, as well as 2016, according to the analysis by CeSID, two things are different this year: the threshold for entry to the Parliament reduced to 3% and the quotas for national minorities increased by 35%. “This means that minorities will somehow be protected from the negative effects of the negative threshold”, he added.
Klacar points out that it is impossible to predict the outcome of the next parliamentary elections because it is not yet known what the turnout will be, as it is directly linked to the opposition’s idea of boycotting the elections. However, supporters of the boycott appear to be having second thoughts as elections approach.
“At the national level, I think they will respect the deal, while at the local level, some may even appear in the elections”, Klacar concludes.
Analysts say it is difficult to predict the outcome of the election, but according to a recent Factor Plus poll, there may be a picture of what the new parliament will look like.
According to the poll, Aleksandar Sapic (SPAS) is above the new 3% threshold, at 4.3% threshold. Krkobabic’s PUPS with 3.6% and the Serbian Radical Party’s 3.3% also appear to be passing the threshold. The “Broom” movement, whose constituency is based on DSS, will struggle to surpass 3%, as it receives 2.4%.
Of course, these are projections that do not take into account the fact that the announced boycott could further reduce turnout and thus the required percentage of votes. There is also no prediction for the “1 out of 5 million” movement in the survey, but it is unlikely to “steal” voters from Sabic, Krkobabic and especially Seselj and the DSS./ibna