OP-ED/Rama-Meta-Idrizi triangle

OP-ED/Rama-Meta-Idrizi triangle

By Eduard Zaloshnja

In an interview that Aldo Bumçi gave for Albanian Free Press, when he was asked if the DP (Democratic Party) was ready to cooperate with SMI (Socialist Movement for Integration) on the creation of an interim government, he said that the DP was ready to cooperate with anyone, not only with SMI for an interim government, but with the party chaired by Shpetim Idrizi too.

Of course, Bumci added Idrizi’s party in his reply, although he was only asked about SMI, with the scope of creating the idea of inclusiveness in the project to overthrow Rama. In fact, those who are above him, know too well that Idrizi’s party is in fact the main factor which doesn’t permit the fall of the current government.

When Ilir Meta launched the idea of an interim government last July, Rama’s government managed to survive thanks to the votes of PJIU (Party for Justice, Integration and Unity) and two or three MPs outside of SP-PJIU group (despite the fact that no motion of no confidence about the government was filed). And unless 71 votes are secured in parliament to back a no confidence motion against Rama’s government, the opposition’s tent may remain in front of the Council of Ministers’ building for as long as it wants.

The parties that are in opposition today have received 660 thousand votes in the last general election. And of course, they are able to bring all the people who voted for them in the capital during the next rally. They can also invade the government building, as they did in September 1998. However, they cannot overthrow the current government, unless 71 votes are secured in parliament to replace Rama with an interim PM. A government which is not voted in parliament, cannot be considered as legitimate by the international community.

Assuming that Meta really wants an interim government, the true battle for such government cannot be held in the boulevard, but at CEC (Central Election Commission), where the mandates of several MPs are being discussed. Currently, Attorney General Llalla (proposed in this post by Meta), insists for the revocation of the mandate of the socialist MP Prenga (who will be replaced by an SMI lawmaker if his mandate is revoked). Meanwhile, the head of CEC (proposed in this post by Rama) insists that the prosecution has no sufficient proof for the revocation of Prenga’s parliamentary mandate.

The prosecution is also demanding the revocation of the mandates of 5 other MPs: two belonging to PJIU, one to SP, one to DP and one to SMI (all supporting the current PM Rama). But the prosecution is still in the process of verifying the finger prints of these MPs through Interpol.

Everything seems to indicate that the battle between prosecution and CEC will have ended until April 1. Only then we will be able to see how many MPs there will be in parliament ready to vote an interim government, if such thing is requested by Meta.

The date “April 1” is relevant in this matter, because it was the very date when Ilir Meta signed a cooperation agreement with Edi Rama. And given that Meta continuously stresses that SMI is not the one that breaks the agreements, then we cannot expect any concrete steps for the overthrow of Rama’s government until April 1, even if this is Meta’s aim.

But if Rama issues signals that he will continue to collaborate with Idrizi for the next 4 years and if the number of seats in the current parliament changes (due to the prosecution’s actions), in all likelihood, Meta will create a pre election coalition, which doesn’t include SP or DP and officially request an interim government prior to the elections.

If Meta’s objective is to form an interim government and he manages it, the race for the post of the PM after June 18 will be unpredictable. Otherwise, Meta must choose whether to stay in the current coalition, where he could no longer be indispensable (as it was the case four years ago) or to create his own coalition racing against Rama-Idrizi’s government and Berisha-Basha coalition.

But in the second scenario, SMI may remain out of the government for the next 4 years…

*The opinion of the author doesn’t necessarily represent IBNA’s editorial line