Analysis/Why doesn’t the opposition have any other alternative besides the boycott of the institutions and delegitimize the institutions
By Branko Gerovski*
I would apply a simple math to understand why the second round of presidential elections must be boycotted and why must institutions be abandoned.
First of all, a part of the 320 thousand votes of the opposition presidential candidate, Stevo Pendarovski are supporters of other parties, such as VMRO-NP, Positive Alliance or some other party.
On April 27, all of those will again vote the opposition candidate, but they will also vote their parties in the parliamentary elections.
Objectively, I believe that these 320 thousand votes do not only belong to the largest opposition party LSDM (Macedonian Social Democratic League).
The second round may see the participation of at least 300 thousand voters more and the participation of voters would be 60%.Out of these votes, I believe that 200 thousand of them will be Albanian votes. But these Albanians will not vote for Pendarovski, as the leader of the biggest Albanian party BDI (Democratic Union for Integration), called for a boycott of the second round of the presidential elections on April 27. Let us say that 30 thousand Albanian votes will go to Pendarovski. Meanwhile, 150 thousand others are undetermined.
If the leader of VMRO-DPMNE and prime minister Nikola Gruevski continues with his systematic fraud and he can do this, because there’s nobody to stop him, then out of this contingent of 150 thousand votes, 100 thousand or 80 thousand votes will go to him.
Thus, Pendarovski will have his initial 320 thousand votes, plus the 70 thousand votes from the massive participation expected to be seen in the second round and 30 thousand potential votes from the Albanians. But even these numbers cannot exceed the current result of the VMRO-DPMNE candidate, George Ivanov who has received 449 thousand votes.
This means that Pendarovski cannot win. The 340 thousand votes won with the president is a poorer result than that in 2011 parliamentary elections, where the opposition won 370 thousand votes. Thus, this means that Macedonian opposition will win fewer seats.
But, you must not forget that the calculation that I’ve made are very optimistic. People, you must understand that under such conditions, it’s impossible to win against such regime through elections. Honest and democratic elections can only be held by a technical government and with a strong international scrutiny. Meanwhile, LSDM cannot play the role of the opposition with 30 seats that it may win.
On the other hand, international institutions will be happy with the fact that we have a new parliament, new president, democracy and we don’t have cross ethnic problems. Why should they be worried? What are they lacking, they may say.
Therefore, there’s no other way out but for LSDM to abandon the institutions of the system, which are under the strict control of the regime. I believe that LSDM will only win from this and will lose nothing. I don’t give up from this battle and I sincerely urge you to do this.
*The author is current editor in chief of the biggest newspaper in the country, “Sloboden Pecat”. He’s known as one of the most prominent analysts in the country and founder of several independent media
** *The stances of the author do not necessarily represent IBNA’s editorial line