This article has been written for Albanian Free Press newspaper and www.albanianfreepress.al
By Eduard Zaloshnja
If parliamentary elections were held today, around 700 thousand eligible voters in Albania would cast their ballot in favour of the Socialist Party and around 800 thousand others would vote the other political parties. These were the findings of an Italian opinion poll conducted by an Italian company (IPR Marketing) and published by a TV Ora News based in Tirana.
At first glance, this result looks good for the opposition, but if we analyze the survey in question, we will notice some weaknesses.
By extrapolating the other results of the opinion poll, we come to the conclusion that only 290 thousand voters have a positive opinion about the democrat leader Basha, while 580 thousand are willing to vote the Democratic Party today. Only 170 thousand voters have a positive opinion about Kryemadhi, while 190 thousand are ready to vote the Socialist Movement for Integration today. (In general, party leaders have higher approval ratings than the parties they represent).
Out of 800 thousand eligible voters who are willing to vote the opposition today, only 610 thousand support the idea of holding early elections. Meanwhile, only 390 thousand agree with the opposition’s decision to boycott parliament and only 400 thousand fully agree with the reasons which have led the opposition to hold demonstrations.
Altogether, the results indicate that a considerable part of the 800 thousand people who would vote opposition parties are not inspired by their leaders or the protests/parliamentary boycott. Anti-government sentiments seem to be the only reason behind their support for the opposition parties.
In fact, data from the opinion poll shows that around 830 thousand eligible voters say that they are worse off today than they were three years ago. Meanwhile, around 800 of them are ready to vote opposition parties today…
Note: The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Albanian Free Press’ editorial policy