Ankara, May 28, 2015/ Independent Balkan News Agency
“Erdogan has distanced himself from the people”, political analysts argue
By Manolis Kostidis
Crucial for the future of Turkey are regarded the parliamentary elections to be held Sunday, June 7 in Turkey with the Kurds to determine the future of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the country.
The Turkish President together with Prime Minister Ahmed Davutoglu seek the vote of the Turkish people for the AKP.
This election, the first since the rise of the AKP to power in November 2002, in which Erdogan cannot be directly involved, as it has undertaken, since last August, the presidency Republic.
With daily inaugurations throughout the country, however, he finds a way to be in the forefront in this critical confrontation, from which will be determined whether his party will secured the necessary parliamentary majority to realize his objective, which is to revise the constitution, turning the country’s political system to a presidential democracy.
A key obstacle to Erdogan’s goal in this election is the pro-Kurdish party HDP. For the first time the Kurds of Turkey will ask for the vote throughout Turkey and try to overcome the high election threshold of 10% applicable in Turkey. Many polls suggest that they will make it. In this occurs the HDP would “steal” seats from the first party.
Until now, Kurds run in elections as independent MPs, only in southeastern Turkey where in each region there is a limit of 25%, which they exceeded comfortably, since the local population mostly consists of Kurds.
The HDP leader is Selahattin Demirtas, who some media call the “Tsipras of Turkey”, since they argue that he may come into conflict with the Erdogan regime. Demitras, in television interviews has stressed that “Tsipras from 4% in a few years came to power, why not do it as well?”
The Turkish President in all his speeches attacks the HDP and characterizes “party of terrorism”, because of its relations with the PKK, but also an “irreligious party”. In these elections, Erdogan tries to emphasize the meaning of Islam, in order to win the votes of the Kurds. In an election speech he was holding the Koran to remind to the voters that he is the proper Muslim and not the Kurds of the HDP.
“The AKP does not exist”
“The AKP at present does not exist as a party. If you notice, in these elections it makes three promises. We will make Erdogan President, we will fight the Hizmet movement and will continue to steal”, said the political analyst and journalist Ahmet Altan.
The advisor of Erdogan, Yiğit Bulut, argues that “Erdogan who is elected prime minister and now elected president, has managed to establish a Turkey based in Anatolia. That is why now he is being attacked from everywhere… But the important thing is that the state delivered to the leader from its real owner, the people themselves”. A few days ago, Bulut had said that he has two guns and several bullets and “before I die nobody can touch Erdogan”.
The “child of the people” now lives in a palace and this annoys the voters
The Turkish minister considers the money spent for the cars of officials to be pumpkin seeds
Some in Turkey argue that the Turkish president, the man who was born and raised in the slums of Kasimpasa in Istanbul, has now been cut off from his people. They give the example of the new palace (Ak Saray), which cost over USD 500 million.
Recently, much controversy was caused by another issue. That of the armored Mercedes Erdogan gave to Religious Affairs Director Mehmet Görmez, which according to Erdogan “a 330,000 lira worth car (115,000 euros) is not a luxury”. Finance Minister of Turkey Mehmet Şimşek revealed that the Turkish budget is burdened with 3.3 billion lira (1.15 billion dollars for service cars and he stated that “for our budget this is like spending money for pumpkin seeds”!
Is the failure of the AKP imminent?
“All indications show that the AKP is heading to an electoral failure. That is why Erdogan is panicking… Failure would be for the HDP to exceed the limit of 10% and the AKP as a result to not have the majority to form a self-reliant government”, says political analyst Cengiz Çandar.
Perhaps it’s not accidental the denial of the former President of Turkey, co-founder of the AKP, Abdullah Gul to the invitation sent by Erdogan to take part in the “celebration” he will organize in Istanbul on May 30 for the “Fall of Constantinople”.
“Gul is not happy with the course of Erdogan and Davutoglu. He disagrees on foreign policy, on the president issue and many more and does not want to be in the same frame with them”, Murat Yetkin writes in the newspaper Radikal.
Polls show marginal self-reliance or coalition
To form a majority government in Turkey a party needs 276 seats in the 550-seat Parliament. The aim of the AKP is at least 330 seats that will give it the enhanced majority needed – 330 seats – to proceed with the constitutional revision, which Erdogan wants, in order to change the constitution from parliamentary to presidential republic and to increase his powers.
The figures of the three most valid polling companies show that the AKP will not achieve self-reliance in case the HDP exceed the limit of 10%.
AKP: 43,9% – 273 Members
CHP: 26,7% – 137 Members
MHP: 15,8% – 79 Members
HDP: 10% – 61 Members
AKP: 41% – 259
CHP: 26% – 133
MHP: 18,1% – 95
HDP: 10,4% – 61
AKP: 40,5% – 259
CHP: 28,7% – 150
MHP: 14,4% – 74
HDP: 11,5% – 65
However, if the HDP stays below the threshold of 10%, things change and the AKP “touches” the 330 seats with the possibility of a statistical error.
Seats in Parliament without the presence of the HDP
AKP: 43,9% – 321
CHP: 26,7% – 143
MHP: 15,8% – 83
HDP: 9,7% – 0
AKP: 41% – 308
CHP: 26% – 140
MHP: 18,1% – 102
HDP: 9,9% – 0
AKP: 40,5% – 308
CHP: 28,7% – 161
MHP: 14,4% – 76
HDP: 9,9% – 0
AKP officials we spoke with, reminded us of the recent failure of polling companies in British elections and claim that the ruling party will exceed the limit of 43-44%.