IBNA OP-ED/ Electoral “Déjà vu”

IBNA OP-ED/ Electoral “Déjà vu”

By Naser Pajaziti

Ali Ahmeti won once again in the elections held in FYROM, thus defeating his opponents, Menduh Thaci and Rufi Osmani. Amheti’s victory showed that amongst the Albanians of FYROM, there doesn’t exist a convincing opposition and that the Albanian electorate is not being convinced by the current opposition camp, which this time was divided.

Ahmeti’s party won the majority part of communes, including the return in Tetovo, which up until now had been led by PDSH, but also Gostivar, which had been led by the leader of RDK, Rufi Osmani. The victory in these two communes strengthens the position of this political party, in both central and local government, being quasi untouchable from the opposition of the Albanian politics.

But, according to the premise of political awareness, such victory gives to Ahmeti a greater political responsibility to face his partner in the governing coalition, Nikolla Gruevski.

Even this time, Ahmeti will have difficulties against Gruevski, who is proving to be undefeated and challenging, after the victory in all Macedonian communes and the city of Skopje.

Next month will be characterized by many unknown elements in terms of government and state policies, whereas Gruevski may seek new political routes to solve or not the name dispute with Greece and to receive a positive report by the European Union in order for the date of the beginning of negotiations for accession to be decided.

In order to avoid the next challenges and the pressure about the process of Euro integration and the name dispute, he may enter a battle, which consists on early parliamentary elections.

Such scenario from the current Prime Minister guarantees to him a convincing victory, by giving him a 4 year term in office until 2017.

Such seduction may also produce other political calculations, because VMRO-DPMNE will once again aim to win the parliamentary elections, like it did in the penultimate ones, where this party won 56 seats and in order to form a majority, it only needed 5 other MPs.

The two parties of the governing coalition will have more space to make calculations in their favor, because they face a weak opposition, with a shaken leadership and without a clear political course.

It’s difficult for the Macedonian opposition to rise again, because it conceded a fiasco in the second round, by being defeated in all the large communes.

The Albanian opposition also faces a great desperation, as a result of the loss of almost all the communes, with the exclusion of Strugë, where the candidate of PDSH, Ziadin Sela was voted by all the Albanians of this commune. It’s highly likely to put Thaçi in front of a decision to leave the leadership of PDSH, after the loss of all the elections, since the creation of BDI.

Rufi Osmani and his party, RDK, after the loss of their stronghold in the commune of Gostivar, face the dilemma “to be or not to be” in the political arena. Osmani is a politician with principles, who may leave politics as he has warned such thing in all his public declarations.

Grudges, undermining tendencies and whims between Thaçi and Osmani led this political duo to this miserable state. Had they stayed together in November 2011, today they could have won the commune of Tetovo, Gostivar and in several other communes. All this mosaic of the seduction of the Albanian opposition gives way to catapults and new political alternatives. But, is this also difficult to happen!?