IBNA Analysis/Unstable coalitions are in the game for the creation of the new government

IBNA Analysis/Unstable coalitions are in the game for the creation of the new government

By Naser Pajaziti

After the announcement of the results of early parliamentary elections in FYROM, numbers indicate that there will not be a sustainable government, because there isn’t a majority with many mandates.

One of the first options is for the two parties, VMRO-DPMNE and BDI (Democratic Union for Integration) to continue their joint governance, which dates back since 2008.

Leader of VMRO-DPMNE, Nikola Gruevski said that he would immediately start talks for the creation of the new government. VMRO-DPMNE with 51 mandates and BDI with 10 mandates, are able to form a fragile government with 61 MPs out of 120 MPs that parliament has. This coalition, which in the 2014 elections had secured 81 mandates (61 mandates of VMRO-DPMNE and 20 mandates of BDI), this time will not have an absolute majority for constitutional changes or important laws for the country.

A second option for the creation of the government is to include some other Albanian opposition party as part of this coalition. But all of them have declared, after the elections, that they refuse to be part of a government with VMRO-DPMNE and BDI.

Meanwhile, the talks between VMRO-DPMNE and BDI will be difficult as the Albanian party that is led by Ali Ahmeti, has promised that the mandate that they would receive after the 11 December elections, would advance the rights of Albanians.

BDI has pledged that it will not enter the government if the Albanian language is not made official, if there is no ethnic consensus for government decisions and the budget and other issues that relate to the Albanian community.

Analysts believe that it is hard for Gruevski to accept Ahmeti’s demands, because local government elections will be held in May.

In case VMRO-DPMNE fails in creating the new government, then SDSM (Macedonian Social Democratic Union) has the mandate to form the new government. Zoran Zaev’s party has won 49 seats in parliament, to seats less than Gruevski. In this case, BDI is still in the game to secure 61 seats.

Before the elections, Zaev promised that the new government will be formed with Albanian opposition parties and not with parties that have been in power so far. But his 49 mandates and the 10 mandates secured by opposition parties are not enough to form the government.

However, there are suspicions that several BDI MPs would leave this party. In this case, Zaev would create a government even if only 2 BDI MPs join his coalition. There are also speculations that all 10 BDI lawmakers would join Zaev.

But even in this case this would be an unstable majority, as Albanian opposition parties have their ethnic demands for the advancement of the position of Albanians in the state. These parties want to make the Albanian language the second official language in the country, they want to solve the name dispute with Greece and speed up the reforms for accession in the NATO and EU.

SDSM doesn’t want to make any compromises either due to the fact that local government elections are near.

The third option that circulates in diplomatic circles in Skopje is the creation of a wide temporary government for the realization of urgent reforms and the application of reforms in justice, continuation of the mandate of Special Prosecution for the investigation of the wiretapping affair and other reforms.

This government may have as part of it VMRO-DPMNE, SDSM and BDI. Even this option is hard to achieve, because VMRO-DPMNE is against the continuation of the investigations by the Special Prosecution. Its leadership is being investigated by this prosecution for different criminal offenses in the previous government.

The scheme for the new government is expected to become clear in the days to come, before the end of the year holidays. /balkaneu.com/