Greek Election Analysis/Overturn or increase of the gap?

Greek Election Analysis/Overturn or increase of the gap?

By Spyros Goutzanis

While Kyriakos Mitsotakis is surfing on the inflated wave of dissatisfaction with SYRIZA- which brought him 9.5 points ahead in the European elections, and gives life-style interviews, his opponent, Alexis Tsipras, fights rearguard battles in an effort to defend his four year governance, but sees the gap growing.

Ten days before the 7 July vote, the pre-election confrontation has evolved into a game for two. Kyriakos Mitsotakis follows an American-style election campaign by portraying his personal profile as a definite prime minister-to-be, in order to reassure still sceptical citizens. In his confidential meetings with close associates, he forms the next government and plans the programme-shock for the first 100 days. He now declares openly his goal for a standalone government and warns of the adventure that the country will enter during the summer if he does not achieve it- “elections on the 15th of August with a proportional representation”.

Thus, the Movement for Change (KINAL), which seems to be getting wiped out with its voters abandoning it for ND and SYRIZA in a ratio of 2 to 1, is being rendered unnecessary. Fofi Gennimata, who did not learn from the way the head of ND treated POTAMI and made it “run dry”,  is now facing the danger of having the same fate. KINAL is surviving only by the memories of the old PASOK that some of its voters still have.

The deep system of the country and the media it controls support the prospect of Kyriakos Mitsotakis. KINAL “sheds” towards ND, Kyriakos Velopoulos, who in the European elections appeared threatening, as he drew voters away from Golden Dawn, has now vanished, so that right-wing voters will eventually end up in their natural bed, ND.

At the same time, the same system favours the up to now “wretched” Yannis Varoufakis, who denies votes to SYRIZA and increases the difference between the first and the second party. Similarly, SYRIZA’s side-ways cut is also reinforced from the remnants of LAE, Plefsi Eleftherias, even from ANTARSYA. Seeing as they will not get into parliament, they are doing a “triple good”: they are “decomposing” SYRIZA from the left, depriving it of even a few votes and, since they will not enter the House, they are reducing the necessary rate Kyriakos Mitsotakis needs to form a standalone government.

The wrong recipe

SYRIZA again behaves not just as if it wants to lose, but as if it wants the difference from ND to be great. It projects and defends its acts of the past four years and simultaneously tries to scare the voters with the negative aspects of the neo-liberal Kyriakos Mitsotakis. The same recipe for failure was followed by Antonis Samaras in 2014, who also had by his side the systemic forces and the media, but still lost miserably.

Alexis Tsipras exhausts his communication skills, pointing out that “his personal opponent has skeletons in his program, that he is afraid of the confrontation and that is why only tied up would he go to a debate, that even his tax relief program is suspended by the agreement with the European partners to reduce the surpluses, and that the insurance and labour sectors will be a tombstone for the people of labour and the welfare state”.

It is as if all he is saying is falling on deaf ears, to no avail. Leftist voters who did not go to the European election ballot, in order to express their protest show that they will do the same in the national elections. The young voters who had been his source of power before 2014, are now heading to ND or wondering which beach they go to on July 7th. The fact that he held open the parliament for a week in order to pass the latest polls simply lengthened the pre-election period against him.

Retired people, seeing as they get their pensions in a timely manner, just like the 13th pension, will also vote for New Democracy without regard for SYRIZA’s scaremongering. The prime minister, with the dramatic convocation of KYSEA, put the Greek-Turkish issues on the pre-election agenda, but not even this was that able to reverse the climate. In this way, the polls show differences of 8-15 points, and Piraeus asks them to remain restrained in order for its own staff to not get complacent.

In the end, the prime minister may state that an overturn cannot be ruled out, but something much more dramatic will need to happen, and only in order to reduce the difference instead of increasing it./ibna