Recent analyses suggest that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s close relationship with former U.S. President Donald Trump could play a significant role in maintaining stability in the Western Balkans. This dynamic is particularly relevant as uncertainty surrounds potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy under a future Trump administration, potentially impacting the fragile geopolitical balance in the region.
Key Takeaways
- Erdoğan’s direct access to Trump offers a crucial communication channel for the Balkans.
- A U.S.-Turkey understanding could bolster support for Balkan nations, especially when the EU is divided.
- Trump’s transactional foreign policy instincts could embolden regional leaders with destabilizing agendas.
- The EU faces challenges in maintaining its credibility and driving reforms in the Western Balkans.
Erdoğan’s Strategic Access
President Erdoğan’s ability to secure direct engagement with Donald Trump, symbolized by gestures of respect during their encounters, is seen as a significant advantage for the Western Balkans. This access provides a vital channel of communication and potential protection for a region often overlooked by Washington. Analysts suggest that Erdoğan, familiar with the region’s complexities, can act as a mediator and protector, especially given his existing rapport with leaders like Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić and Bosnia’s Milorad Dodik.
Navigating Balkan Instability
The Western Balkans, with its unresolved ethnic tensions and nationalist currents, risks becoming a lower priority for Western powers preoccupied with other global conflicts. This vacuum could tempt local actors to test boundaries, potentially leading to secessionist rhetoric or heightened posturing between Serbia and Kosovo. Erdoğan’s alignment with Washington, even if pragmatic, could offer a stabilizing influence by preserving borders and deterring destabilizing impulses.
Trump’s Transactional Approach and EU Challenges
Donald Trump’s foreign policy is often characterized by a preference for deal-making over long-term strategy. This transactional approach could embolden leaders in the Balkans seeking political and economic benefits, potentially undermining fragile peace agreements. Meanwhile, the European Union faces the challenge of rebuilding its credibility and driving meaningful reforms in the region, a process complicated by past ineffectiveness and internal divisions.
Potential for Both Stability and Disruption
The relationship between Erdoğan and Trump presents a dual potential for the Western Balkans. If Erdoğan leverages his access to champion sovereignty and protect pluralism, the region could benefit from increased stability. However, if this access leads to transactional bargains that undermine peace, the consequences could be severe. Policymakers in the region and in Brussels are urged to view this dynamic as an opportunity for coordinated diplomacy, advocating for clear U.S. red lines against border changes and encouraging responsible Turkish influence.
Sources
- Erdoğan’s close ties with Trump could keep the Balkans stable, Daily Sabah.
- U.S. diplomacy in the Western Balkans under President Trump, GIS Reports.
- Western Balkans Quiver Amid Trump Uncertainty, Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
- What Trump’s approach to Europe means for the Western Balkans, Atlantic Council.
- Transactional politics in the Western Balkans under Trump’s second term, Real Instituto Elcano.
