Erdogan and the scenarios for his successor

Erdogan and the scenarios for his successor

Erdogan and the scenarios for his successor

Pollsters predict 10th consecutive election victory

As President he wants to transform Turkey on his conditions

By Manolis Kostidis – Ankara

Almost all pollsters in Turkey predict a landslide victory for Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Presedintial election held in Turkey today.

The most reliable research firm, KONDA, that has correctly predicted the outcome of the last seven elections in Turkey says Erdogan will get 57 pct of the vote over 34 pct of Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu who is the common candidate of the CHP and the MHP. The pro – Kurdish HDP candidate, Selahattin Demirtas is predicted to win 9 pct of the vote.

Other polls predict Erdogan will take 55 pct of votes.

If the predictions are proved right, the Turkish Prime Minister will become President and will be the only political leader in Turkey to have won 10 consecutive elections (parliamentary, local and referenda included) and, most impressively, each time with increasing rates.

“Erdogan wants to be elected in the first round, as immediately after he will call for a convention in order to appoint a new Prime Minister chosen by himself. He will do this before August 28 as Gul will remain President until then and a new PM cannot be elected” Hurriyet political analyst Tacha Akgiol says.

“However, if the Presidential election goes to a second round on August 24th, Erdogan will be dealt a blow and Gul might run for Prime Minister”.




Erdogan’s plan is to change the regime in Turkey from parliamentary to presidential. He wants to have all powers in his hands. “Take a look at Russia and the US where the system works better” he has said in interviews.

Sources in Ankara predict Erdogan will initiate procedures for a Prime Minister to be picked as soon as the election is settled. The most likely scenario is that current Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu will take over. Observers mention the Turkish PM’s last stop on his presidential pre-election tour was Konya which is the constituency of the minister of Foreign Affairs. Davutoglu and the commander of the Turkish secret service, MIT, Hakan Fidan are the people Erdogan trusts the most and believes in their vision.

Until recently the name of government vice president Ali Babacan was also touted in the Turkish capital as a possible candidate. However, an economic issue has seemingly caused a fallout with Erdogan. The issue could potentially cause serious problems for the economy after the election.

At the beginning of last week, Ali Babacan announced that the state bank Ziraat had begun discussions to acquire Asya Bank. The bank – owned by the Islamic battalion of Gulen – faces serious financial trouble nd is on the brink of bankruptcy as it is involved in a “war” with the Turkish state.

Within a few hours of Babacan’s announcement, the PM’s advisor on the economy, Yigit Bulut, denied the buyout was on on Erdogan’s orders and accused those spreading the story of working for Gulen!

Babacan does not belong to the Gulen guild but he knows full well that the bankruptcy of a private bank in Turkey could cause a chain reaction in the economy. It seems Erdogan however has a different opinion.


Political analyst Ahmet Hakan of Hürriyet newspaper predicts that the Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the Turkish economy Ali Babacan will be replaced by Gigit Boulouti.

The particular advisor is the one who maintained before the local election last March that “some people are trying to assassinate the Prime Minister through telekinesis”. This man is now likely to take the Turkish economy into his hands.

Two more names involved in scenarios for Erdogan’s successor are those of government vice president Bulent Arinc and AKP vice president Mehmet Ali Sahin.