Athens, February 16, 2015/ Independent Balkan News Agency
By Nikolaos Kaliakoudas, Economist
I do not know if this evening the critical meeting of the Eurogroup will reach a final agreement. However, it seems likely that we’ll go to a complex compromise. Of course this compromise, has a different meaning for Athens, a different meaning for Berlin and another for Washington. The end of the troika? Maybe! However, the periodical technical assessment from the three institutions will continue, say the partner-lenders. The end of the Memorandum? Maybe! But some measures of the memorandum, which the Greek government will agree on, should be promoted, say the partners-lenders.
What we will name a “bridge” programme, they will call extension and modification of the current Memorandum. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. After all, the essence of compromise is mutual retreat from the original positions. However, the fact is one. There doesn’t appear to be a plan for the country’s exit from the euro. This is evidenced by the spirit of understanding and good will on all sides, without the exception of the German side, which appears consensual unlike the original intransigent stance on the “faithful adherence to the current programme”.
However, the aim of the Greek government to open up the issue at an international level has worked. Every day we witness economic events. The meetings and conferences that are being organised around the clock, determine the country’s future. Any casually retreat or mistake, will have no room for error!
In addition, we must not overlook the factor of America, which in any case does not want to this policy of continuous austerity in Europe continue. The reason is that its economy is directly dependent on Europe’s! As long as Europe is in recession, many of US’s products sales in the European market have dropped, which has an impact on its companies, operating both in America and in the old continent. The depreciation of the euro against the dollar creates a huge problem in American exports.
Everyone understands now that a failure to struck a deal with Greece will have a bad outcome for both the eurozone and the global economy. Nobody likes a crisis in Greece, – especially this period that Europe works as quicksand with various movements springing up on every point, the geopolitical interests developing in the Mediterranean region – where our country plays a geostrategic role – with the Ukrainian problem unresolved, the terrorist jihadists actions out of control, and the extreme neo-Nazi constructs “spreading” and now threatening to “grab” the power (France).
In conclusion, given the unstable social, political and economic characteristics, which are evident in Europe and the wider region at this period, everything points, despite chaotic despite our differences, to a complex compromise.