One third of citizens in the capital are ready to vote an independent candidate for mayor

One third of citizens in the capital are ready to vote an independent candidate for mayor

Only 67.5% of the residents of Tirana, who voted in June 2013, are determined to vote today one of the parties that raced last year

Tirana, October 21, 2014/Independent Balkan News Agency

By Eduard Zaloshnja

Head of the “Barometer” Institute of Polls

A survey that we held in the capital in the first two weeks of October, in the framework of Barometer’s polls, indicated that only 67.5% of voters in the capital, who participated in the June 23, 2013 elections, are determined to vote today one of the parties which were in the race.

Around 60% are determined to vote the same party that they voted last year, 5% are determined to vote another party within the coalition, 2.5% will vote today a party of the opposing coalition, 28% are undetermined and 4.5% are determined not to vote at all.

This tendency of voting is similar for both the main coalitions. Thus, 68% of the voters of the right wing coalition are determined to vote the same party that they voted last year, 4% are determined to vote another party within the coalition, 5% are ready to vote today a party of the opposition coalition, 18% are undecided and 5% are determined not to vote at all.

Among voters of the left wing coalition, 62% are determined to vote the same party that they voted last year, 8% are determined to vote another party within the coalition, 2% are determined to vote today a party of the opposition coalition, 25% are undecided and 3% are determined not to vote at all.

The voting tendency changes a lot among respondents who have not declared as to which party they voted last year. Among them, only 33% are determined to vote the same party that they voted last year, 3% are determined to vote the same party within the coalition, 2% vote today another party of the opposition coalition, 58% are undecided and 4% are determined not to vote at all (90% of the voters of FRD are determined to vote this party again and 10% are undecided).

The survey tested the predisposition of the residents of the capital, who are eligible to vote, to vote an independent candidate for mayor.

Three hypothetical candidates were tested as independent candidates-the known publicist and independent analyst, Fatos Lubonja, Dashamir Shehi, leader of the National Development Movement Party and former Democrat MP, Gjergj Bojaxhi. The candidates “faced” in different scenarios hypothetical candidates such as the minister of Defense, Mimi Kodheli, the senior democrat official, Grida Duma, minister of Interior, Saimir Tahiri and former leader of DP and current MP of this opposition party, Eduard Selami.

By using the lower threshold of the statistical margin error, it results that no less than 1/3 of the residents of the capital eligible to vote would choose at least one of the independent candidates, regardless of which party candidate they would face.

The survey sample contained 1200 residents of the capital eligible to vote and the survey was held by landline telephone. The sample was rebalanced in order to make a good geographical, demographic and political representation of the current residents of the 11 boroughs of the capital. At the end of the rebalancing, the margin’s maximum of the statistical error resulted to be +/-3.2%.

Around 81% of the residents of the capital eligible to vote (represented by the sample) resulted to have participated in the June 23, 2013 elections. Around 49% of those who participated in last year’s elections have declared during the survey that they have voted the left wing coalition, 33% the right wing coalition, 2% have voted FRD and 16% have note declared last year’s vote.

According to the official result of the Central Election Commission, among 292 thousand votes that were counted last year in the capital, 58% went in favor of the left wing coalition, 39,5% in favor of the right wing coalition and 2,5% in favor of FRD. /ibna/