By Spiros Sideris – Athens
Greece features on top of the risk index of Blackrock that shows countries that are facing a higher probability of bankruptcy based on their financial figures.
The index is formed through the analysis of quantitative measurements in four main categories. The financial margin (40%), willingness for repayment (30%), the external fiscal position (20%) and the state of the financial sector (10%).
Based on the three-month (April-May-June) debt risk index (Sovereign Risk Index) of Blackrock, the country with the highest probability of bankruptcy is Greece, followed by Venezuela, Egypt, Ukraine, Portugal, Argentina, Italy, Slovenia, Hungary and Ireland.
This last quarter favored the developed markets such as Belgium and Britain, which went up in the rankings, while key emerging markets dropped, due to political instability and the deteriorating economic outlook.
Brazil fell four places and was 31st among 50 countries, which according to Blackrock is attributed to rising levels of short-term debt. Russia “dropped” three in 24th place due to “the decline in perceived effectiveness of its government” and the worsening of the economic outlook. Argentina, which is deadlocked with investors who refused the “haircut” on bonds fell in the ranking by one place to 45th, compared with the previous quarter.
At the same time, a number of developed economies benefited from the upward revision made by the International Monetary Fund in its forecasts for growth. Belgium has climbed four places and is now 27th, Britain three places higher in 20th and the Netherlands rose two places to 11th.