BiH: Political games in the ruling coalition: Who comes out on top?

BiH: Political games in the ruling coalition: Who comes out on top?

After the Democratic People’s Alliance (DNS) left the ruling coalition and after the coalition leader Milorad Dodik (Alliance of Independent Social Democrats) announced that all DNS officials in high positions (and in lower ones) would be replaced, the real question is – who are the winners and who are the losers in this game?

The turbulence in the ruling coalition in Republika Srpska could hardly surprise anyone. Especially those who have followed the political situation in this BiH entity know that there has long been a current in the DNS that had a great desire to get the biggest “slice” of power or to leave the coalition. The old president of DNS, Marko Pavić, announced a split several times, but it never happened, nor did the party get what it thought belonged to it. That is one of the reasons why Pavić, already ill in his later years, was asked to retire politically. He was replaced by the younger Nenad Nešić, the acting director of “Roads of RS”.

It should also be emphasized that the DNS in the last few years has accepted a large number of opposition members who did not agree with the policies of their parties. The rapid increase in the number of members, including some prominent names in BiH politics, has led to greater party aspirations in the coalition’s division of power. However, the SNSD obviously has its own plan in which there is no place for such aspirations.

The first signal about what will happen to the DNS if it refuses to obey the demands of SNSD came a few months ago, when the Minister of Local Self-Government, a member of DNS, Lejla Rešić, was replaced due to a disagreement between DNS and SNSD in the city of Prijedor. It just means that Nešić and his comrades from the party leadership knew what awaited them and the party after leaving the coalition.

Therefore, what happened after the decision to leave did not surprise anyone. However, the decision of the Municipal Board of DNS Banja Luka to remain faithful to the current mayor, Igor Radojičić from SNSD, is a bit surprising. It is not yet known whether any of the other municipal boards will take the same path and turn their backs on their own party. If that happens, the DNS will be split in two again and will definitely be a loser in this case.

SNSD will most likely lose several votes in the RS National Assembly, which will be reflected in the lack of raised hands in cases when a two-thirds majority is needed. This especially refers to the cases when Milorad Dodik decides to veto a decision in the Presidency of BiH, which must be subsequently confirmed in RSNA with a two-thirds majority. When things are viewed from this angle, the SNSD is also a loser.

The opposition wants to, but most likely will not succeed in persuading Nešić and the DNS to join their team, so they will not get anything special either.

For now, it seems that everyone has lost something or gained nothing, and everything should be clearer after the local election, which should be held in a month.

Provided they are not cancelled again due to COVID-19./ibna